Probable Worlds

Scenario Engine

Battle-tested for decisions that matter

The forecasting engine behind every Probable Worlds surface: live world-states, calibrated probabilities, one API.

Why decision desks pick the engine

Calibrated

Every probability is scored against real outcomes on a public ledger. 0.91 and holding.

Scalable

Object-storage-backed world states scale to billions of scenario evaluations a day.

Reliable

99.95% uptime SLA. Decision desks run their morning briefings on us.

Secure

Encrypted at rest and in transit, with SSO, RBAC, private endpoints, and BYOC.

Performance

Performance at production scale

Built for hedging desks, underwriters, and planning teams.

Point forecasts

Single-probability answers to binary questions — the fastest path from question to number.

p5016ms
p9021ms
p9933ms

Full distributions

Complete probability distributions over continuous outcomes, with every quantile you ask for.

p5038ms
p9074ms
p99120ms

Query latency for the 12k-question live set, single region, measured over the trailing 30 days.

Architecture

Innovative architecture

Backed by distributed object storage for scalable, highly available forecasting.

Real-time signal ingest

New evidence re-weights every affected world-state within seconds — no batch windows, no stale probabilities.

Tiered world-state cache

Hot questions stay in memory; long-horizon scenarios rest in object storage at a fraction of the cost.

Fast calibrated reads

Optimized inference paths deliver scored probabilities at scale with minimal latency.

Query types

One engine, every question type

Binary, distributional, timeline, and conditional questions — all managed in one place, queryable through one API.

Binary outcomes

Will it happen by the date? One probability, scored on resolution, tracked on the ledger.

Distributions

Prices, counts, and dates as full distributions — ask for the median or the tail, not a hot take.

Timelines

Branching path forecasts over sequences of events, each branch carrying its own weight.

Conditionals

What-if queries against counterfactual world-states: intervene on a variable, re-weigh the futures.

Reliability

Uncompromising reliability

The most careful operators are already in production with Probable Worlds.

99.95% uptime SLA

Consistent availability for critical decisions, contractually guaranteed.

Ledger snapshots

Programmatically snapshot question sets and resolutions to protect against failure.

Deletion protection

No forecast disappears from the ledger — an additional verification layer prevents accidental loss.

Multiple AZs

Deployments span availability zones automatically for hands-off resilience.

Security

World-class security

Enterprise-grade security and operational controls.

Data security

Encryption at rest and in transit, private networking, and hierarchical encryption keys.

Compliance

SOC 2, GDPR, and ISO 27001 certified, with independent calibration audits on top.

Bring your own cloud

Deploy a private Probable Worlds region in your own cloud environment.

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Access controls

Roles and permissions for users, service accounts, and API keys.

Org management

Audit logs, SAML SSO, admin APIs, and project management with full visibility.

Reviewed and trusted

By security-conscious enterprises whose risk desks read the fine print.

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Deploy in seconds

Scale seamlessly

{Python} {TypeScript} {cURL}
$pip install probableworlds⧉ Copy
>pw.ask("EU carbon price > €95 by Q4?").probability  # 0.58⧉ Copy

Start weighing tomorrow today

Run your first forecast for free, then pay as you go when the decisions get bigger.